WWE’s Raw move to Netflix may sound like a digital revolution—but Dave Meltzer says the numbers don’t hold up.
On the May 29 episode of Wrestling Observer Radio, Meltzer and Bryan Alvarez pulled no punches as they laid out why WWE’s viewership claims are riddled with inconsistencies, questionable math, and reporting standards that don’t match what fans are used to seeing with Nielsen.
The most controversial part? The idea that only 10% of viewers are watching Raw live on Netflix.
“They [Netflix] claimed only 10% are watching live recently. That’s impossible. Historically, about 75% watched live. That drop doesn’t make sense.”
“People don’t change from 80% in February to 10% in May. It just doesn’t happen.”
“Most people watch it live — especially in the U.S., on the East Coast. They’re creatures of habit.”
Meltzer didn’t stop there. He dug deep into the numbers and said even when giving WWE every benefit of the doubt, the math still falls apart.
“Even when I give them credit for people who re-watch or watch longer than the show length… if you use their own 10% live number, you get 270,000 homes worldwide. That’s maybe 400,000 people live — globally.”
“So even if you generously account for time-shifted viewing, we’re still well under a million live viewers in the U.S.”
When comparing these numbers to historical Nielsen data, Meltzer explained how completely out of line this new reporting is:
“If you’re going to do a comparison with Nielsen, those foreign countries don’t count. Nielsen never counted London or India. This is U.S. numbers only. So you’ve got to subtract all of that.”
“In the USA Network days, it was about 75% watched live, about 10% watched that night but not live, and the other 15% would watch later in the week.”
“Now they’re claiming only 10% are watching live — it doesn’t work.”
The conversation got even more specific when Bryan Alvarez questioned how Netflix defines “live” viewing.
Alvarez: “If I start watching Raw at 5:01 and hit start from beginning, I’d be watching one minute behind — does that count as live?”
Meltzer: “That would count as live. Are you watching the 2.5-hour show or the commercial-free one? If you’re watching that night, even if you start a little late, it counts.”
Alvarez: “So I count as one of the 90% not watching live even though I watched part of it live?”
Meltzer: “Exactly. That’s the problem. It makes the 10% number ridiculous.”
Then Meltzer broke down how international numbers—especially from India—skew the data even further:
“India just jumped in recently. That 2.7 million number includes India now — that’s about 175,000 to 200,000 homes. So subtract that from U.S. estimates.”
“You can’t compare a number that includes India to a Nielsen number that never did.”
And if you’re trying to track trends, Meltzer says it’s clear WWE’s numbers are falling—not rising:
“The last two weeks have been the two lowest [viewership weeks] other than that February one. They’re way, way below last year.”
“There was a point where we asked ‘What’s the bottom?’ And I think we’re seeing it now.”
“Yes, the average may seem similar early on due to the big debut, but for the last couple of months — they’re way down.”
He also noted that WWE is now leaning on VideoAmp, not Nielsen, which results in lower baselines for comparison:
“VideoAmp numbers are usually about 75% of Nielsen. And that’s what they’re using as the baseline. So now your baseline is already lower than what we were using last year.”
“So again, even when I give them every benefit — more credit than they give themselves — the numbers still don’t add up.”
So while WWE is promoting record numbers and global reach, Meltzer is sounding the alarm on what he believes is misleading data, questionable methodology, and an overinflated narrative about Raw’s success on Netflix.
Please credit Ringside News if you use the above transcript in your publication.
Do you trust WWE and Netflix’s reported WWE RAW numbers? Please share your thoughts and feedback in the comment section below.